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Landlords: Good times or bad ahead? Housing prices likely to dive, but rents may increase or even rise, if renters can afford to pay.

USA Today reported on September 29, 2010 that home values will continue to take a dive in value well into 2011, because the "home buying season" is ending after a dismal summer.

Most experts predict about 5 million homes will be sold this year in line with 2009 and just above 2008, the worst since 1997. House values nationally stand at 28% below their July 2006 peak. Some markets like Las Vegas are 57% off of peak values.

Seattle home values are down 1.6% in the July 2009 – July 2010 time period. Las Vegas saw a drop of 4.9% in the same period.

Nationally, another 2.2% drop in home prices is expected in the last half of 2010, reports USA Today in a reprinted Associated Press article of September 29, 2010.

Paul DAvidson and Barbara Hansen of USA Today report that more renters struggled to pay the rent in 2010. The share of renters spending 30% or more of their household income on housing costs – the threshold set by the government to determine if housing is unaffordable – rose to 51.5% in 2009 from 50% of renters in 2008.

The number of homeonwers has fallen by 500,000 while the number of renters has increased by 1,000,000, and the percentage of homeowners dipped from 66.6% to 65.9%.

Renters are more likely to be severely burdened. In 2009, 26.4% of renters spent more than one-half of their incomes on housing, up from 25.1% of renters spending more than one-half of their incomes on housing in 2008. Thus 9.5 million households now fall into the "severely burdened" renter catagory, up from 8.8% in 2008.

IDEAS FOR ACTION: (1) If you are a renter, consider a longer term lease such as a two year lease at a lower monthly rental cost, but negotiate for a "buyout term" which allows you to cancel the remainder of the lease after six months by paying a flat "re-let fee" of perhaps $1,000.00 in the event you must leave because of a job change or relocation. This will offer some protection against rent increases caused by more renters entering your local market. (2) If you are a landlord, look carefully at your new prospective tenants’ finances and ensure that the new tenant can afford the rent you are asking. Since there seem to be plenty of renters according to statistics, don’t be in too much of a hurry to rent to the first tenant that comes along. (3) If you are a landlord working with existing tenants, or an existing tenant, consider negotiating for a new lease for an additional lease extension of a year or two which "locks in" the rent, as although there are more tenants who may be willing to pay a higher rent, a financially stable and committed tenant may be a good long term investment for a landlord, and for the tenant insulation from rent increases may be advisable if a new rush of tenants in the form of recently foreclosed homeowners enters the market and drives up rents.