Tag Archives: variable rates

Who is Robert Shiller and why are his recent comments on housing price recovery so important? What does he have to say?

Robert Shiller says that values in the housing market are not poised for an overall recovery, notwithstanding spring-summer 2012 housing price increases in a some cities. He says that today’s low interest rates alone are not enough to spur a housing price recovery.

Why should we care what Robert Shiller says?

Well, this guy is big – really big. In fact, he “invented” the perhaps most widely watched economic indicator of housing market price movement in the United States.

He is “Shiller” of the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller 20-City Housing Price Index. So, when Robert Shiller talks about housing price movements, people listen, and listen very closely.

Mr. Shiller notes that there was in fact a 9 percent increase in housing prices over the time period March – September 2012 in his eponymous Case-Shiller housing price index. Some optimistic pundits have said that this good news shows near certain promise that we are “turning the corner” in the housing price slump.

Strongly disagreeing with these optimists, Mr. Shiller says in so many words that this 2012 Spring-Summer uptick doesn’t mean a thing in terms of predicting a long term positive trend of housing price recovery.

Mr. Shiller is more than pleased to splash the optimists with a few buckets of cold water reality.

Mr. Shiller offers well reasoned responses to the optimism of others. Mr. Shiller doubts that housing price optimism is well placed. Let’s examine three expressions of optimism and compare Mr. Shiller’s three down-to-earth responses:

1. Optimism: Concurrent with the housing price increase nemployment rates dropped from 8.2% to 7.8% March – September 2012
Mr. Shiller’s cautious response: No big deal; unemployment rate declines simply continued a trend inexistence since 2009 and unemployment tends to decline in the summer season anyway.
2. Optimism: Housing start permit applications have increased and the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Index of traffic of prospective home buyers increased over the summer and fall of 2012.
Mr. Shiller’s pessimistic response: No big deal; the more important spring 2012 study/survey by Wellesley College’s Karl Case and McGraw-Hill Contruction’s Anne Thompson contradicts that there was no increased optimism or enthusiasm expressed by prospective homebuyers.
3. Optimism: Foreclosure activity decreased in 2012, thus presumably making less inventory available on the market.
Mr. Shiller’s discounting response: No big deal; this just continues a longer term trend in existence as reported by Realty Trac and thus should not by itself be seen as the kickoff of any long term trend of housing price increases.

Finally, Mr. Shiller presents five reasoned and discouraging response to optimism concerning housing price recovery:

1. Mr. Shiller says that the 86 percent increase in housing prices 1997 through 2006 was an historical anomaly, unlikely to be repeated by now wary investors. Such anomalies have eventually reverted to keep the long term growth in housing prices pegged to and indexed to an inflation adjusted consistent value says Mr. Shiller. The recent “housing price boom” was almost completely reversed by 2012, putting housing prices back on an inflation adjusted consistent value curve at just a point or two above ongoing inflation rates.
2. Mr. Shiller notes that there has only been one other major national housing price boom in the last century – 1942 to 1953 in which housing prices in real terms rose 68% nationally. It took 44 years (to 1997) for the next “boom” to kick in – and on that metric, the next boom is going to kick in at about the year 2050. Care to wait around for it? (Note: I, James MaGee will be 92 years of age when it starts to kick in….)
3. Mr. Shiller notes that home ownership is actually in decline, at 69% in the third quarter of 2006, down to 65.5% in the third quarter 2012.
4. Mr. Shiller notes that the wild lending that fueled the boom is more reigned in now by (a) new ability-to-pay standards announced by mortgage lenders and (b) the oversight of the new federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
5. Finally, the Zillow-PulsenoicsHome Price Expectation Survey (involving the input of 100 housing price forecasters) was predicting very modest inflation adjusted housing price growth increases of only 1 to 2 percent per year over the next half-decade.

Mr. Shiller’s final word: Don’t expect an increase in your home price to bail you out of any problematic financial situation, and don’t do anything dramatic or difficult such as over-reaching financially to buy an expensive home or buy a home for short term use if you expect to have to move fairly soon, as there is too much uncertainty to justify any aggressive speculative moves right now.

Much thanks to the New York Times, Sunday, January 27, 2013 edition, page 1, Sunday Business Section: Economic View, by Robert J. Shiller; Titled, “A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It.”

Retirement But Not Totally Part Three

This is t he third installation of Retirement But Not Totally, finishing off the Forbes.com list of top 25 places to retire, here are numbers 8-1.

8. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: Oklahoma has a top-rated tax climate and an unemployment rate of 5.5%. Housing prices are an average of $143,000 and cost of living is cheap.
7. Pittsburg, Pennsylvania: Unemployment is 6.6%. Although the winters here are extremely cold, the cost of living is 6% below the national average and homes are going for $121,000. Also doctors per capita ranks at one of the nations highest.
6. Provo, Utah: Cost of living is average with homes going for $210,000 on average. This town is Brigham Young University’s hometown and has a 5.5% unemployment rate and a favorable tax climate.
5. Rapid City, South Dakota: So close to Mount Rushmore, Rapid city has an excellent job growth track record and housing prices average $152,000. Unemployment is down to 4.1%.
4. Salt Lake City, Utah: This is Utah’s largest city and enjoys a 5.6% unemployment rate. Ranking number six on Milkens Institute job and economic growth index, Salt Lake City’s cost of living is 5% below the national average.
3. San Angelo, Texas: Cost of living is far below the national average as is San Angelo’s unemployment rate. Home prices average at barely $100,000 and this town’s diverse job base and colorful city make for a satisfying place to reside.
2. Shreveport, Louisiana: With a 6% unemployment rate, Shreveport has a high job growth prospect. Cost of living is below 4% the national average and this city sits close by a medical school ensuring plenty of doctors per capita.
1.State College, Pennsylvania: 4.9% unemployment rate, $210,00 average housing prices and a high prospect for job growth, make this beautiful college town an ideal choice for living and enjoying the excitement and economic advantages that Penn State provides.

Retirement should not be all about staying at home or going out and going on expensive trips. With the right move and planning, everyday could be exciting and active. But with debt holding you back from enjoying your retirement, bankruptcy may be your best option for a fun and fulfilling retirement.

With rising cost on just about everything, it is hard to go out and enjoy life, especially when burdened with debt. But with bankruptcy, you are able to go back out and enjoy the things you may want to do.

The article can be found at:

http://www.forbes.com/pictures/mjd45idmk/retirement-but-not-totally/

Does the bankruptcy double standard play a role in personal bankruptcy?

A recent article from The New Yorker highlights a troubling disparity in the way we view bankruptcy and loan restructuring in general in this country. As was evidenced in the recent bankruptcy filing of American Airlines, bankruptcy for corporate entities is generally considered part of an overall savvy approach to managing debts and investments.

While American Airlines could have continued paying its debts (it filed bankruptcy with more than $4 billion in the bank), it opted to take the bankruptcy route, which will allow it to restructure its debts into ones that make more financial sense. After the company filed its Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition, most analysts praised its decision, citing the success other airlines have had with reorganization bankruptcies in recent years.

However, for consumers interested in filing personal bankruptcy, the attitude of the general public is vastly different.

The current turmoil in the housing market highlights exactly how differently the general public views personal bankruptcy:

The housing bubble falsely inflated housing prices. Arguably, the analysts and economists who were equipped to recognize this bubble for what it was an attempt to prevent its burst did not. Also arguably, consumers might have recognized the bubble, but were less likely to do so than those trained in economic fields.
Lenders and homebuyers took on risky debts, betting on rising home prices to pay them off. We now know that those debts were not so good.
Many banks lost millions or billions of dollars on bad home loans. Some of those banks benefitted from taxpayer-funded bailouts. Others have staunchly refused to refinance (on a significant scale) mortgage loans that have become untenable for their borrowers.
Many homeowners are underwater on their homes. Sources note that many Americans owe up to 50 percent more than their home’s value on their loan. The “smart move” financially for these people would be to walk away from their mortgage, to abandon their homes and stop paying their mortgages. Most don’t, though.

One of the major reasons more homeowners aren’t walking away from their unaffordable homes, even though such a move would be financially logical, is that nonpayment of loans has been morally stigmatized in the media.

Figures including the head of the Mortgage Bankers Association have reportedly noted that defaults on home loans “send the wrong messages” to community and family members. Others have hinted that we would do well to bring back debtors’ prisons. The total effect, in other words, is that personal bankruptcy and similar moves (even when they’re financially savvy) have been labeled as morally deleterious.

The New Yorker article summarizes the problem in its closing paragraphs, noting that the prevailing attitude in the U.S. runs that individuals ought to “do the right thing” by honoring their debts, but that large businesses, banks, and corporations—who usually have much more capital at their disposal—can do whatever earns them the greatest profits.

Many experts believe that we may be headed for another recession. Don’t enter a second recession with piles of debts. I can counsel you on your debts. I am sure that I can be of assistance to you, a family member or a friend as we all know someone experiencing trouble these days even if we are not experiencing our own financial troubles. Please do not hesitate to make contact with me. I emphasize courteous and discrete consultations packed with plenty of information. The life impact of meeting with me in person will be unforgettable. You will enjoy a new peace of mind and a fresh hope for the future with a new roadmap for financial success that we develop together. You can email my scheduler through our website for your free 30 minute consultation at www.washingtonbankruptcy.com or e-mail directly at [email protected]. To schedule immediately, we can be reached at 253-383-1001 M-Th 9am-5:45pm and Friday 9am – 12pm.

How can I avoid bankruptcy fraud allegations?

Every so often, there’s a local news story about someone who has been convicted of bankruptcy fraud. This week, the case belongs to one George Raynor, of Baileyville, Maine. While the case itself isn’t exceptional in any way, it highlights an important precaution for potential bankruptcy filers to note in order to avoid a fraud conviction.

Bankruptcy fraud is exactly what it sounds like: a bankruptcy filer’s provision of false information to the court that alters the outcome of his or her bankruptcy case. In some cases, bankruptcy fraud can be unintentional, but its penalties are steep: those convicted of bankruptcy fraud might face up to five years in jail and up to $250,000 in fines.

Common examples of bankruptcy fraud include an attempt to shield property from the court; a filer might attempt to transfer property from his or her name to the name of a friend or family member or might simply fail to report ownership of a piece of property or sum of money.

But bankruptcy fraud can also occur when a filer fails to mention income he or she is expected to receive in the future. Raynor’s case falls into this category.

According to the Bangor Daily News, Raynor and his wife filed a bankruptcy petition in 2006 but, in their list of assets, did not mention:

A savings account in a bank;
A deferred compensation retirement account valued at roughly $150,000;
A lump sum payment from his retirement account in the amount of $97,000; and
A payment from his former employer of $12,000 as compensation for unused sick and vacation days.

Now convicted of the charges, Raynor could see as much as five years behind bars and fines of up to a quarter of a million dollars. To date, Raynor’s sentencing has apparently not been scheduled. Often, the amount of the fine assessed on a bankruptcy fraud conviction roughly equals the amount of money or value of property that the filer attempted to withhold from the court.

One of the easiest ways to avoid bankruptcy fraud is to work with a bankruptcy lawyer. Working with someone who is familiar with state bankruptcy laws and the procedures of the bankruptcy court can go a long way toward avoiding mishaps that could delay or derail a case.

Lawyers can also advise filers about which of their assets they must list, whether gifts or property transfers will be considered legal by the court, and what outcomes they can expect from their bankruptcy case.

In cases where a filer may have future income due to him or her, a lawyer can help determine how to calculate the value of that income and how to report it on bankruptcy filing paperwork.

Is student loan debt a bigger problem than credit card debt?

USA Today recently reported that student loan debt in the United States, which totals $850 billion, now exceeds outstanding credit card debt in the U.S., which totals $828 billion.

USA Today gets its numbers from a web site publisher named Mark Kantrowitz, who publishes two scholarship matching services called FinAid.org and FastWeb.com.

A more interesting element of this issue has to do with the monthly repayment numbers facing borrowers. The USA Today article suggests that $30,000 of student loans, payable at 6.8% interest over ten years would amount to $350 per month. At this level of debt, the average person would need to earn at least $42,000 per year.

In a bankruptcy context, student loan debt is not dischargeable except in cases of “undue hardship.” In most cases, “extreme hardship” has essentially been limited to student loan debtors who have a medical issue that prevents them from working. At this point in time, debtors have not been successful in arguing for hardship discharge on the grounds that they cannot find a job in this economy that pays enough to support their student loan obligations. There was a recent Supreme Court decision involving student loans and bankruptcy, but that case did not address the substantive issue of what constitutes “undue hardship.”

Why does it seem like everyone is filing for bankruptcy these days?

A growing number of baby boomers are going bust.

A newly released study found that 42% of all individuals filing for bankruptcy were between the ages of 45 and 64 in 2007 and that older Americas are filing for protection from creditors at a much faster rate than younger adults.

“The baby boomers are disproportionately represented in bankruptcy proceedings,” wrote John Golmant and James Woods, who compiled the study that appears in the September issue of the American Bankruptcy Institute’s ABI Journal. Golmant is a statistician and Woods is a social science analyst, both with the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts in Washington.

Bankruptcy filings are increasing fastest among individuals between the ages of 55 and 64, the study found. From 2002 to 2007, the percentage of filers in that category grew 65%.

By comparison, the demographic group that experienced the largest percentage drop in bankruptcy filings was Americans 25 and younger, down 60% in 2007 from 2002.

“This significant demographic uptick in older bankruptcy filers has outstripped the aging of the general population as a whole,” Golmant and Woods wrote.

The authors said the recent housing crisis is at least partly to blame, as falling home prices left baby boomers with little or no home equity. The study noted that persons older than 50 were often targeted during the refinancing boom in the early part of last decade.

High levels of credit card debt and mounting health care bills also contributed to the higher number of filings among older Americans, the study found.

The recent study shows the continuation of trend stretching back to at least 1994. In that year, people between the ages of 55 to 64 accounted for 7% of all individual filings. In 2007, the same group accounted for 15.2% of consumer bankruptcies.

What debts are dischargeable through filing a Chapter 7 Bankruptcy?

A Chapter 7 bankruptcy is not as generous as a Chapter 13 when it comes to the range of debts that can be discharged. However, there are still a wide range of unsecured debts that can be discharged. One of the most common
debts is that of credit cards, and they are typically the major component of any Chapter 7 bankruptcy petition.

Bankruptcy itself can only ever discharge unsecured debts, so secured loans such as mortgages and car loans will remain no matter which Chapter a debtor decides to file under.

Some of the more common debts that can be discharged include:

· Personal loans including loans from friends, family, and employers

· Credit cards including overdue fees

· Medical bills

· Debt judgments

· Repossession deficiencies

· Auto accident claims except those involving drunk driving

· Business debts

· Monies owed under lease arrangements

· Negligence claims

· Income taxes that aren’t priority taxes

· Tax penalties over 3 years old

When it comes to back taxes and penalties, there are provisions that relate to when you actually filed returns and whether or not fraud or tax avoidance is an issue. While these unsecured debts are discharged through a
Chapter 7 bankruptcy petition, the following debts cannot be:

· Debts not included in the schedules filed

· Recent taxes

· Child or family support

· Criminal fines and/or restitution

· Accident claims involving drunk driving

· Penalties payable to the government other than tax penalties

· Student loans

· Taxes for years where returns were not filed or filed for less than 2 years

A Chapter 13 petition for bankruptcy may discharge some of these debts. Where a Chapter 13 petition does benefit a debtor, is in its capacity to help debtors catch up on overdue debts that cannot be discharged. This may
assist in preventing further action such as jail time for unpaid fines. If you’re in doubt as to which Chapter to file for bankruptcy under, consult an experienced bankruptcy attorney.

Many experts believe that we may be headed for another recession. Don’t enter a second recession with piles of debts. I can counsel you on your debts. I am sure that I can be of assistance to you, a family member or a
friend as we all know someone experiencing trouble these days even if we are not experiencing our own financial troubles. Please do not hesitate to make contact with me. I emphasize courteous and discrete consultations
packed with plenty of information. The life impact of meeting with me in person will be unforgettable. You will enjoy a new peace of mind and a fresh hope for the future with a new roadmap for financial success that we
develop together. You can email my scheduler through our website for your free 30 minute consultation at www.washingtonbankruptcy.com or e-mail directly at [email protected]. To schedule immediately, we can be reached at 253-383-1001 M-Th 9am-5:45pm and Friday 9am – 12pm.

Can I clear an IRS debt through bankruptcy?

Generally speaking, taxes are exempt from discharge through bankruptcy. However, in some cases you can discharge an IRS debt using a Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing. The only IRS debts that can be discharged are those that
are over three years old. There are certain conditions that must be met first.

The first condition is one that is attached to most debts. This relates to fraud and, in the case of taxation, tax evasion. Debts that arise out of fraud or tax evasion cannot be discharged through bankruptcy.

Other conditions include when you filed the tax return for the debt. Your return must have been filed at least two years prior to seeking relief through a Chapter 7 filing. There is also a “240-day rule” that has to be taken into consideration.

The “240-day rule” states that the tax debt in question must have been assessed by the IRS at least 240 days before you filed your bankruptcy petition, or it must not have been assessed as yet. Once your petition for
bankruptcy under Chapter 7 has been processed, your debt to the IRS will be discharged.

This effectively wipes out your personal obligation to pay the debt, and prevents the IRS from going after your bank account or garnishing your wages. There is one exception to this – if the IRS has recorded a tax lien
on your property before you filed your petition for bankruptcy, that lien will remain on the property.

Taxation can be a particularly tricky area when it comes to bankruptcy. It is important to seek legal opinion from a qualified and respected bankruptcy lawyer before proceeding with any application. Their advice could save you a lot of heartache and perhaps hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars.

Many experts believe that we may be headed for another recession. Don’t enter a second recession with piles of debts. I can counsel you on your debts. I am sure that I can be of assistance to you, a family member or a
friend as we all know someone experiencing trouble these days even if we are not experiencing our own financial troubles. Please do not hesitate to make contact with me. I emphasize courteous and discrete consultations
packed with plenty of information. The life impact of meeting with me in person will be unforgettable. You will enjoy a new peace of mind and a fresh hope for the future with a new roadmap for financial success that we
develop together. You can email my scheduler through our website for your free 30 minute consultation at www.washingtonbankruptcy.com or e-mail directly at [email protected]. To schedule immediately, we can be reached at 253-383-1001 M-Th 9am-5:45pm and Friday 9am – 12pm.

Do I have to include credit cards with a zero balance on my bankruptcy petition?

While bankruptcy is designed to help people escape serious debt problems, the situation becomes interesting when it comes to credit accounts with zero balances. These are typically credit card debts, either through credit card companies or those issued by individual businesses. When filing for bankruptcy, debtors only need to include actual debts, so in theory, they do not need to list those zero balance accounts. The situation becomes a little murkier if these accounts include monthly or annual fees, and those fees will become due during the bankruptcy process.

In most instances, you can leave these accounts out of your bankruptcy petition. You should be aware that your petition for bankruptcy does become a matter of public record and that most credit providers regularly data match bankruptcy petition notices and their own records. While your account may have a zero balance, your credit provider is quite within their rights to cancel those cards to prevent you incurring new debt.

Should your credit provider not cancel those accounts, they will be available to use post bankruptcy. This can help to kick start a new positive credit history post bankruptcy so it is well worth considering paying down any credit accounts with low balances prior to filing for bankruptcy. Paying down those accounts will not guarantee they survive the bankruptcy process, however, it can be well worth exploring the option.

Bankruptcy will, especially in a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, discharge all eligible debt no matter how large or small the balance is. Paying down to zero any low value (less than $200) balances makes sense for a number of reasons, most particularly, having that account survive bankruptcy and available post bankruptcy.

Many experts believe that we may be headed for another recession. Don’t enter a second recession with piles of debts. I can counsel you on your debts. I am sure that I can be of assistance to you, a family member or a friend as we all know someone experiencing trouble these days even if we are not experiencing our own financial troubles. Please do not hesitate to make contact with me. I emphasize courteous and discrete consultations packed with plenty of information. The life impact of meeting with me in person will be unforgettable. You will enjoy a new peace of mind and a fresh hope for the future with a new roadmap for financial success that we develop together. You can email my scheduler through our website for your free 30 minute consultation at staff1. To schedule immediately, we can be reached at 253-383-1001 M-Th 9am-5:45pm and Friday 9am – 12pm.

I’m newly graduated, are there any jobs out there for me?

New census data recently revealed states that Americans between the ages of 20 and 40 have become a “lost generation” of unemployed and underemployed.

The once American dream of going to college, obtaining a degree, finding a career, and making it on your own, is now gone. The Associated Press says that only 2.4% of college graduates find a job that motivates them enough to move out of the state they grew up in. The other 97.6% of graduates will move back home and live with their parents. It is estimated that 5.9 million members of this so-called “lost generation” will finish school, and move back in with their parents. That number is 25% more than during the last recession the U.S. went through.

The even more frightening aspect of all this is that only 55.3% of this generation will ever start a career. Most will continue to work various odd jobs, just like they did when the first left school. That being said, the entire American process of growing up, getting married, buying a house, and having kids is delayed. Marriage among the “lost generation” has reached a new low of 44.2%, and homeownership fell from 67.3% in 2006 to 65.4% in 2010.

On top of all this, economists have squashed the idea of “things will get better soon”, by claiming that this trend will continue for at least the next ten years, and when it’s finally over, it will take another ten years for this generation to fully recover.

When the “lost generation” is finally “found” again, they will be older, but none the wiser, as they will have little experience and absolutely no assets to speak of.